Today is December 22, 2013, 34 days after the launch of my podcast.
Well, I released show #9 this morning. Let’s revisit my prediction on how it would do. Here’s what I said in post #19:
“So if I were to predict how many downloads I’ll get for my next release, assuming the current trend continues, I would say it will be 9 times what I typically see with new listeners. If I guestimate that there are about 150 new listeners per new release (who subsequently download the rest of the episodes), I predict that my next release this coming Sunday will bring in 1350 downloads in the first day (9 episodes times 150 new listeners). Anything on top of that I’d guess is my subscriber count.”
We’ll ignore some of the minor grammatical issues with the above paragraph (Hey, I typically write these when I’m about to fall asleep!), and go straight to the numbers.
Here are the download numbers from libsyn:
- Dec 16: 1177 downloads (1 day after new release)
- Dec 17: 863 downloads (2 days after new release)
- Dec 18: 754 downloads (3 days after new release)
- Dec 19: 786 downloads (4 days after new release)
- Dec 20: 585 downloads (5 days after new release)
- Dec 21: 667 downloads (6 days after new release)
- Dec 22: 1381 downloads (New release today)
Total downloads to date: 19,750 (was 18,359 yesterday)
Whoa, so close! However, the day isn’t over yet. There are still 3.25 hours left before midnight. But still, pretty good guess if you ask me. Tomorrow’s number I predict will be larger, considering Monday is a day of commuting for many podcast listeners.
The current iTunes New and Noteworthy rankings:
- All of New and Noteworthy: #24 (#34 yesterday)
- Health New and Noteworthy: #1 (#2 yesterday)
- Business New and Noteworthy: #1 (#2 yesterday)
- Education New and Noteworthy: #1 (#2 yesterday)
The power of 1! Funny how it was #2 yesterday, but this morning, it was #5 or so in all three categories. But now it’s number 1 again. I’ll take that. : )
Interesting to note, Fox and Food, whom I’ve mentioned in a previous post, was number 1 for a few days. Then they disappeared! I searched for them today, and they are still in the new and noteworthy section, however they are number 700 or so. Wow, amazing how fast you can disappear into the haystack. Not sure what they did, but they may need to revisit their strategy. I do see that they still have no ratings and reviews. But, they had none when they reached the number 1 spot to begin with.
I guess it’s possible they were not niched down enough. Or maybe not enough subscribers perhaps? Unknown, but an interesting study how some stick around like mine (and many other very good shows) and some drop off a different cliff. Still in N & N, but no longer visible on the front page.
Two things I’ve done a little differently on my show recently:
I removed calls to action during the outro. I used to ask for ratings, or reviews, or subscribes, but I removed those altogether.
I also added a monologue before the interview. I mean, I had one, but it was more of an intro to an intro. However, I added a short monologue on the subject, injecting dry humor and cynicism to it, to make it more provocative.
More of my personality is coming out, and I’m still learning to get more comfortable behind the mic (it’s something I continually work on). Oh, almost forgot, I change my music intro (not the music, just the intro during the music) with every show, so it’s never the same thing twice. I figure that’s one thing people appreciate. They never know what I’m going to say, so they listen to everything just in case.
Will be uploading the Holiday Blues show in a couple days. Should see some very educational results from that, since it will be a 5 day special.
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